Hypothesized driver | Model variables | df†| AIC | ΔAIC‡ | AIC Weight | Conditional R2 | Marginal R2 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Flow dynamics | Water level | 3 | 2082 | 144.2 | < 0.001 | 0.265 | 0.119 |
 | Daily water level change | 3 | 2051 | 112.8 | < 0.001 | 0.119 | 0.086 |
 | Water level + daily water level change | 4 | 1980 | 41.5 | < 0.001 | 0.292 | 0.175 |
Other hydrologic/abiotic conditions | Temperature | 3 | 2174 | 235.3 | < 0.001 | 0.042 | 0.006 |
 | Salinity | 3 | 2171 | 233.1 | < 0.001 | 0.042 | 0.006 |
 | Temperature + salinity | 4 | 2169 | 230.6 | < 0.001 | 0.039 | 0.012 |
Phenology | Day length | 3 | 2176 | 237.6 | < 0.001 | 0.053 | 0.003 |
 | Lunar cycle | 3 | 2175 | 236.3 | < 0.001 | 0.051 | 0.005 |
 | Day length + Lunar cycle | 4 | 2174 | 235.6 | < 0.001 | 0.058 | 0.008 |
Interannual variation | Year | 9 | 2174 | 235.9 | < 0.001 | 0.061 | 0.024 |
Global model | Water level + daily water level change + temperature + salinity + lunar cycle + year | 14 | 1938 | 0 | 0.680 | 0.319 | 0.247 |
Best model | Water level + daily water level change + temperature + salinity + year | 13 | 1940 | 1.6 | 0.320 | 0.316 | 0.245 |