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Table 2 Model evaluation (QIC) and cross validation (LOOCV) for female moose organized by population. Base models contain no temperature covariates, while spline models incorporate nonlinear interactions between a given covariate and ambient temperature. In this case, “Spline %can2” refers to percent canopy interacted with ambient temperature with two spline segments, while “Spline %can3” refers to percent canopy interacted with ambient temperature with three spline segments. Decreases in QIC indicate a better model fit while increases in LOOCV indicate more predictive ability

From: Behavioral modifications by a large-northern herbivore to mitigate warming conditions

  Koyukuk Susitna Innoko Tanana
Base Spline %can2 Base Spline %can2 Base Spline %can2 Base Spline %can3
QIC 47,070 46,918 70,707 70,423 73,361 73,184 102,854 102,746
ΔQIC − 152 −284 − 177 −108
LOOCV 68% 69% 62% 64% 60% 63% 36% 46%
ΔLOOCV + 1% + 2% + 3% + 10%
  1. Note: %can = percent canopy cover