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Table 5 Confusion matrix for the binary conversion of the likelihood of ARS estimated by the spatial coordinates NPMR model for the building (n = 1444) and validation sets (n = 364), using the cutoff value that maximized the true skill statistic (TSSmax). FPR is the false positive rate, FNR is the false negative rate, TPR is the true positive rate, and TNR is the true negative rate. The second part of the table reports a set of performance metrics for this binary conversion, including prevalence, accuracy, precision, the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC, range: 0 to 1 with larger numbers indicating a better fit), the root-mean square error (RMSE, range: 0 to infinity with smaller numbers indicating a better fit), and the Brier score (range: 0 to 1 with lower scores indicating a better calibration of the predictions)

From: Ecological correlates of blue whale movement behavior and its predictability in the California Current Ecosystem during the summer-fall feeding season

Confusion matrix:
   Predictions Classification error
  Absence Presence
Observations in the building set Absence 113 45 0.28 (FPR)
Presence 404 696 0.37 (FNR)
Observations in the validation set Absence 83 39 0.32 (FPR)
Presence 59 146 0.29 (FNR)
Performance metrics:
  Building set Validation set
 TSSmax 0.35 0.40
 Cutoff 0.90 0.65
 Observed prevalencea 0.87 0.63
 Predicted prevalencea 0.59 0.57
 TNR (1-FPR) 0.71 0.68
 TPR (1-FNR) 0.63 0.71
 Accuracyb 0.64 0.70
 Precisionc 0.94 0.79
 AUC 0.71 0.72
 RMSE 0.32 0.45
 Brier scored 0.10 0.20
  1. aPrevalence is estimated as: presences/total
  2. bAccuracy is estimated as: (true positives + true negatives)/(obs. Presences + obs. absences)
  3. cPrecision is estimated as: true positives/(true positives + false positives)
  4. dThe Brier score is computed as the mean of the squared residuals
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Movement Ecology

ISSN: 2051-3933