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Table 1 Predictors and variable importance scores in seasonal distribution models of the Western Arctic Herd

From: Using seasonal landscape models to predict space use and migratory patterns of an arctic ungulate

Included 2010 Predictors (units)

Source

Spring

Calving

Insect Relief

Late Summer

Fall

Winter

Active Layer Thickness*∆ (m)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

31.0

15.1

16.6

15.6

31.4

18.4

Aspect (°)

ned.usgs.gov

27.6

13.5

11.3

15.2

24.6

10.6

Coast Distance (m)

www.asgdc.state.ak.us

43.3

23.6

18.3

24.0

42.9

34.8

Elevation (m)

ned.usgs.gov

30.6

13.2

14.3

15.7

32.3

16.1

Freeze Date*∆ (Julian date)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

9.7

4.2

3.1

5.3

17.9

7.3

Thaw Date*∆ (Julian date)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

17.2

5.5

5.1

4.1

12.3

8.5

Fire History∆ (year)

agdc.usgs.gov/data/projects/fhm

14.6

3.8

2.5

3.2

14.1

15.9

Lake Distance (m)

nhd.usgs.gov

31.5

15.3

11.6

17.6

29.4

15.5

Growing Season Length*∆ (days)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

32.8

9.6

6.2

10.0

51.2

16.0

Ground Temperature*∆ (°C)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

36.6

14.8

11.7

15.0

64.6

21.3

NDVI Greenup Rate∆ (−0.2˗˗1.0)

nhd.usgs.gov

25.6

13.7

11.7

16.1

24.8

10.7

Max NDVI∆ (−0.2˗˗1.0)

alaska.portal.gina.alaska.edu/search

22.2

5.4

7.9

17.9

27.5

15.6

Potential Evapotranspiration*∆ (mm/yr)

arcticlcc.org/products/spatial-data

69.0

100.0

100.0

28.1

100.0

35.5

Permafrost Probability (%)

[91]

18.9

10.6

10.2

16.0

32.9

18.1

Winter Precipitation*∆ (mm)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

100.0

13.0

8.0

57.6

47.1

25.3

Summer Precipitation*∆ (mm)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

26.7

12.7

14.2

21.4

34.0

26.9

Spring Precipitation*∆ (mm)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

31.5

25.4

6.7

15.8

27.8

19.1

Fall Precipitation*∆ (mm)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

35.7

12.5

35.5

20.1

44.4

21.1

Stream Distance (m)

nhd.usgs.gov

30.1

13.9

10.8

15.8

26.8

13.9

Road Distance (m)

www.asgdc.state.ak.us

60.9

31.1

26.5

27.9

44.3

39.1

Max (Mar) Sea Ice Distance*∆ (m)

[92]

53.4

18.7

12.9

17.1

41.8

30.9

Min (Sep.) Sea Ice Distance*∆ (m)

[92]

58.3

47.5

16.4

21.9

43.2

37.4

Slope (⎕)

ned.usgs.gov

28.4

13.3

12.2

17.9

34.8

13.0

Winter Snow Day Fraction*∆ (%)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

11.6

2.8

14.1

24.7

20.6

100.0

Summer Snow Day Fraction*∆ (%)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

18.1

10.0

6.1

9.3

14.8

10.0

Spring Snow Day Fraction*∆ (%)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

25.2

7.2

7.0

9.0

16.1

13.6

Fall Snow Day Fraction*∆ (%)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

26.6

7.0

6.9

100.0

23.7

19.9

Snow-free Date*∆ (Julian date)

[62]

64.2

10.4

9.3

11.7

27.7

25.8

Winter Temperature*∆ (°C)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

25.8

17.4

9.0

15.6

29.5

28.1

Summer Temperature*∆ (°C)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

28.3

15.4

7.6

10.2

28.5

12.0

Spring Temperature*∆ (°C)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

22.0

12.1

9.8

10.5

24.7

12.6

Fall Temperature*∆ (°C)

www.snap.uaf.edu/tools/data-downloads

65.4

20.8

9.3

13.7

26.6

21.4

Distance to Trails (m)

www.asgdc.state.ak.us

35.7

16.1

17.0

18.9

34.2

23.6

Terrain Ruggedness 17 × 17 (0–1)

ned.usgs.gov

28.2

20.6

18.7

21.4

28.8

33.7

Terrain Ruggedness 3 × 3 (0–1)

ned.usgs.gov

26.5

13.8

12.1

16.1

24.4

10.5

Community Distance (m)

www.asgdc.state.ak.us

43.4

14.9

11.9

15.1

43.6

13.6

Wetland Distance (m)

https://www.fws.gov/wetlands/Data/Data-Download.html

25.4

13.7

11.9

15.6

30.7

13.8

  1. Predictors denoted with an * are decadal means, and ∆ indicates dynamic predictors that change annually. Active layer thickness is the depth of ground that thaws and freezes each year. Freeze and thaw dates refer to the mean annual date of first freeze (or thaw) during 2010–2020. Fire history denotes the year of the most recent fire in a given area. Growing season length is defined as the number of days between the date of first thaw and date of first freeze. Ground temperature refers to the modeled mean annual ground temperature. NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) is an infrared-based measure of landscape greenness indicative of biomass; green-up rate and maximum NDVI are annual metrics calculated from NDVI. Potential evapotranspiration (PET) here is the amount of evaporation that would occur over a year if a sufficient water source were available. Seasonal climate variables are decadal averages of downscaled seasonal totals. Seasons are grouped as follows: Spring (Mar.-May), Summer (Jun.-Aug.), Fall (Sep.-Nov.), Winter (Dec.-Feb.). Permafrost probability describes the distribution of near-surface permafrost. Distance refers to the shortest Euclidean distance to the nearest feature. Snow day fraction is an average of the percentage of days with snow on the ground. Terrain ruggedness predictors were calculated from slope and elevation using 2 moving window scales of 3 and 17 m, respectively. Predictor importance values are out of 100.0 with the top predictor always receiving the maximum