Association with humans and seasonality interact to reverse predictions for animal space use

Table 5 Bayesian parameter estimation, testing for paired seasonal differences (dry season minus wet season) in space use, group size and habitat metrics within banded mongoose groups in northeastern Botswana (2008 – 2011)

Response variable	Pred. ^a	n^b	β ^c	95% HPDI^d		% Posterior^e		Result^f	Interp.^g
				LB	UB	< 0	> 0
Groups living in association with humans
Day range (km)	D > W	6	-0.6	-1.6	0.4	91	9	D < W	MC
Seasonal home range (ha)	D > W	7	-18.4	-37.0	-0.3	98	2	D < W	HC
Seasonal core range (ha)	D > W	7	-4.9	-9.4	-0.5	98	2	D < W	HC
API^h	D > W	7	-0.014	-0.033	0.005	94	6	D < W	MC
Building density (ha ⁻¹)		7	0.49	0.04	0.92	2	98	D > W	HC
Macrofauna density (m ⁻²)	D < W	7	-301	-640	8	97	3	D < W	HC
Tourist bed nightsⁱ			0.23	0.04	0.43	1.2	98.8	D > W	HC
Fecal organic matter (%)	D = W	7	-1	-11	9	60	40	D < W	U
Group size	D < W	9	7.3	0.9	13.6	1	99	D > W	HC
Groups living without association with humans
Seasonal home range (ha)	D > W	1	30					D > W	U
Seasonal core range (ha)	D > W	1	7					D > W	U
API^h	D > W	1	0.016					D > W	U
Macrofauna density (m ⁻²)	D < W	1	-432					D < W	U
Fecal organic matter (%)	D = W	1	-2					D < W	U
Group size	D < W	1	8					D > W	U

^aPrediction of relationship based on theory: dry season (D), wet season (W)
^bNumber of paired seasonal estimates (i.e. mongoose groups) used
^cEffect size
^dHighest posterior density interval (HPDI) with lower bound (LB) and upper bound (UB)
^ePercentage of posterior distribution below or above zero
^fResult: dry season (D), wet season (W)
^gRevised interpretation of the result (posterior): moderate certainty (MC), high certainty (HC), uncertainty (U)
^hDispersion of space use — area-probability integral (API)
ⁱDry season minus wet season bed nights sold, expressed as relative (X-fold) change, for 10 tourist lodges

ISSN: 2051-3933