Table 6 Model selection results for estimating monthly survival probability (MSP) of PTT-implanted tundra swans from Alaska, USA, 2008–2012. Results include 22 models from the a priori model set and are based on a version of the data containing 22 mortalities (discrepancies considered mortalities). Models are ranked based on Akaike’s Information Criterion adjusted for small sample sizes (AICc) and model weight (w i). K = number of model parameters; AICc of top model = 232.52
From: Demographic outcomes of diverse migration strategies assessed in a metapopulation of tundra swans
MSP model | K | ΔAICc | w i | Deviance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
Wintering area | 3 | 0.00 | 0.18 | 226.50 |
Breeding area | 5 | 0.71 | 0.13 | 223.19 |
Constant | 1 | 1.01 | 0.11 | 231.53 |
Migration distance | 2 | 1.15 | 0.10 | 229.66 |
Age * Yr1 + Yrs2-4 | 3 | 1.37 | 0.09 | 227.87 |
Management population | 2 | 1.70 | 0.08 | 230.21 |
Autumn | 2 | 2.76 | 0.05 | 231.27 |
Yr1 + Yrs2-4 | 2 | 2.77 | 0.05 | 231.28 |
Migration | 2 | 3.02 | 0.04 | 231.53 |
Yr1 * Trend + Yrs2-4 | 3 | 3.13 | 0.04 | 229.63 |
Autumn * Yr1 + Yrs2-4 | 3 | 4.12 | 0.02 | 230.62 |
Mo1-2 + Mo3-12 + Yrs2-4 | 3 | 4.66 | 0.02 | 231.16 |
Breeding status * Yr1 + Yrs2-4 | 3 | 4.67 | 0.02 | 231.17 |
Migration * Yr1 + Yrs2-4 | 3 | 4.73 | 0.02 | 231.23 |
Yr | 4 | 5.29 | 0.01 | 229.78 |
Yr1 * Trend + Yr | 5 | 5.66 | 0.01 | 228.14 |
Autumn * Yr1 + Yr | 5 | 6.64 | 0.01 | 229.12 |
Season | 4 | 6.79 | 0.01 | 231.28 |
Mo1-2 + Mo3-12 + Yr | 5 | 7.19 | 0.01 | 229.67 |
Migration * Yr1 + Yr | 5 | 7.26 | 0.00 | 229.74 |
Season * Yr1 + Yrs2-4 | 5 | 7.93 | 0.00 | 230.41 |
Season * Yr1 + Yr | 7 | 10.47 | 0.00 | 228.91 |