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Table 4 Model selection results for estimating monthly survival probability (MSP) of PTT-implanted tundra swans from Alaska, USA, 2008–2012. Results include 22 models from the a priori model set and are based on a version of the data containing 15 mortalities (see text). Models are ranked based on Akaike’s Information Criterion adjusted for small sample sizes (AICc) and model weight (w i). K = number of model parameters; AICc of top model = 168.19

From: Demographic outcomes of diverse migration strategies assessed in a metapopulation of tundra swans

MSP model

K

ΔAICc

w i

Deviance

Wintering area

3

0.00

0.19

162.17

Age * Yr1 + Yrs2-4

3

0.09

0.18

162.26

Yr1 + Yrs2-4

2

1.48

0.09

165.66

Yr1 * Trend + Yrs2-4

3

1.85

0.07

164.02

Management population

2

2.08

0.07

166.26

Autumn * Yr1 + Yrs2-4

3

2.83

0.05

165.01

Constant

1

3.10

0.04

169.28

Breeding area

5

3.19

0.04

161.34

Mo1-2 + Mo3-12 + Yrs2-4

3

3.38

0.03

165.55

Breeding Status * Yr1 + Yrs2-4

3

3.39

0.03

165.56

Yr

4

3.45

0.03

163.61

Migration * Yr1 + Yrs2-4

3

3.45

0.03

165.62

Yr1 * Trend + Yr

5

3.82

0.03

161.97

Migration distance

2

4.14

0.02

168.32

Migration

2

4.80

0.02

168.98

Autumn * Yr1 + Yr

5

4.80

0.02

162.95

Autumn

2

5.02

0.02

169.20

Mo1-2 + Mo3-12 + Yr

5

5.34

0.01

163.49

Migration * Yr1 + Yr

5

5.42

0.01

163.57

Season * Yr1 + Yrs2-4

5

6.64

0.01

164.79

Season

4

8.04

0.00

168.21

Season * Yr1 + Yr

7

8.62

0.00

162.74